2025 Belgian Grand Prix Preview: Why Spa Could Change the Championship
- Nicole Nolte
- Jul 23
- 9 min read
Formula 1 heads to Spa‑Francorchamps this weekend for the 2025 Belgian Grand Prix, and if you’re not excited yet, you should be…
This is not “just another race”, this is Spa – it’s the longest, most demanding circuit on the calendar.
On top of that, 2025’s championship fight is getting more intense by the week. Max Verstappen needs to make a statement – FAST. McLaren’s two young stars are already bumping elbows.
Aaaaad the Sprint format on Saturday means more points, more pressure, and less margin for error.
Let’s unpack what’s at stake here… and why this weekend might change everything.
2025 Belgian Grand Prix Preview: Why Spa Is F1’s True Test
Spa isn’t just famous because it’s old (though it is very old, the first car race there was in 1922 and it held its first Grand Prix in 1925 – yes, you read that right)
It’s famous because no other circuit demands this much – from the car, from the driver, and from the team.
The layout is over seven kilometers long (7.004 km, to be exact), that’s more than DOUBLE the length of some modern tracks.
This matters because it means you get all the extremes in one lap:
long straights
tight corners
elevation changes
high‑speed sweepers
tricky braking zones
… all of that in just ONE LAP.
From the moment the lights go out, the compromises start, and teams have to decide:
Strip downforce to be fast in a straight line on the Kemmel Straight? (Even though that makes you vulnerable in Sector 2, where grip matters most)
Or load up on downforce for the corners and risk being a sitting duck on the straights?
There’s no perfect answer.
Spa’s corners are iconic because they test everything. La Source. Eau Rouge. Raidillon. Pouhon. Blanchimont. One does not just drive them, you survive them. And if you want to win here, you have to master every single one of them, in every kind of weather.
And about that weather: Spa is NOTORIOUS for its microclimate… because the circuit is so long and sits in the middle of the Ardennes forest, it’s not unusual to see one sector soaking wet while another stays bone‑dry. That unpredictability is what makes Spa such a strategic nightmare, and soooo thrilling to watch.
The Championship fight
We’re at the halfway point of the season and, for the first time in a couple of years, Max Verstappen isn’t in control.
Instead, McLaren are leading the championship. Oscar Piastri sits at the top of the standings with 234 points. Lando Norris is second with 226 points, juuuust eight behind his teammate.
… And Verstappen is back in third with 165 – a full 69 points behind Piastri.
That gap is big, but not impossible to close (yet)
Especially at Spa…
Why? Because this is a Sprint weekend. And that means more points are available than usual.
On a normal weekend, the maximum haul for a driver is 25 points (we don’t have that extra point for fastest laps anymore in 2025).
BUT on a Sprint weekend, you can grab an extra 8 points by winning the Sprint on Saturday.
Those extra points can make or break a championship challenge.
For McLaren, they need to bring speed AND control if they want to hold on to that lead. Piastri and Norris have been polite so far, but the tension is clear. Norris doesn’t want to play number two. Piastri won’t give an inch. And Spa could be the weekend when that rivalry boils over, as tensions have already been high over the last few races.
Why Verstappen will be dangerous here
This is Verstappen’s home turf, and he’s won here three times already (2021, 2022, 2023)
For our Dutch Lion, the stands will be packed with his Orange Army, waving flags and setting off flares just for him.
He knows how to win at Spa, and he’s motivated to prove Red Bull can still fight.
His team, however, has been under A LOT of pressure. Red Bull’s RB21 hasn’t been the most dominant car lately. Verstappen himself has been frustrated by poor balance and inconsistent performance.
Aaaaand then there’s the leadership drama – Christian Horner is out, Laurent Mekies is stepping in as team principal for the first time this weekend.
But Helmut Marko confirmed earlier this month that Red Bull are bringing a BIG upgrade package to Spa, and another one next week in Hungary. These changes are designed to fix their straight‑line deficit and make the car more stable through fast corners.
Marko said it himself: “Spa should suit our car better, especially under the changeable weather conditions.”
So, I think (although it might be hopium), if Red Bull can deliver a car that works here, Verstappen will be the biggest threat of the weekend.
What the other teams are up to
McLaren
McLaren aren’t resting, either. Their recent floor upgrade has worked wonders at tracks like Silverstone, which share some characteristics with Spa (fast corners, high‑speed sections, and unpredictable grip).
But Spa is even more extreme, and straight‑line speed has been their one weakness, so they'll need to prove that their advantage in Sector 2 isn’t undone by drag on the straights.
Ferrari
Ferrari are bringing their long‑awaited rear suspension redesign, which should make the car more predictable and help Leclerc and Hamilton carry more speed through long corners.
… But they’ve been poor in the wet lately, and if the forecast delivers rain, they might still struggle.
Mercedes
Mercedes are bringing another big update aimed at improving high‑speed stability.
Russell won here last year (though disqualified after), and Spa’s cooler temperatures suit their car. Rookie Kimi Antonelli, meanwhile, faces his toughest challenge yet, as Spa is not the kind of track you ease into.
What’s happening in the midfield?
Even midfield teams are in the mix this weekend. Aston Martin are bringing their final upgrade package of the season, and Alonso’s experience and willingness to take risks in chaos make him dangerous here. I rate that Williams could also sneak into the points thanks to their low‑drag, high‑speed car.
How the Sprint changes everything
The Sprint is a short race – just 100 kilometers, about 30 minutes flat‑out – and happens on Saturday afternoon. It has its own qualifying session earlier that day, called the Sprint Shootout.
The key here is that setups are locked after just one practice session on Friday morning.
That means teams have to commit to a dry or wet‑leaning setup early, and if they guess wrong, they’ll suffer all weekend.
And with rain in the forecast for Saturday morning, the Sprint could become a total free‑for‑all. Whoever gambles right on tyres and timing could walk away with a big points haul.
What to watch out for in the Sprint
Do Piastri and Norris finally get their elbows out?
Does Verstappen take big risks to claw back points?
Does someone like Alonso or Albon roll the dice and score unexpectedly?
Do Ferrari or Mercedes look like serious contenders again?
Which team made the right gamble on setup after just one hour of practice?
Why strategy is SO complicated at Spa
Spa has the longest pit lane on the calendar, so a pit stop here costs you about 40 seconds.
That’s a lifetime in F1 time. That’s why teams are always reluctant to pit more than once, but they might not have a choice this weekend.
Pirelli have brought an unusual tyre allocation this weekend: skipping the C2 compound and going straight from the C1 hard to the C3 medium. That big gap in performance might force teams into two‑stop strategies.
Normally, Spa would use three consecutive compounds (something like C2/C3/C4) but this year they’ve deliberately skipped the C2 entirely.
But… why?
They did this to create a bigger gap in performance between the hard and the medium.
What that means is the hard (C1) will last a long time but be very slow.
The medium (C3) will be faster but wear out quicker.
And the soft (C4) will be blisteringly quick but probably only good for a handful of laps.
By forcing teams to choose between a big step in performance or durability, Pirelli are trying to force a bit more variation in strategy, and hopefully more pit stops. You might see some drivers go aggressive with two or even three stops, while others gamble on a single long stint.
But then there’s the weather...
If it rains (and all forecasts say it probably will) none of this matters, because wet and intermediate tyres could dominate the race. That’s why Spa strategy is always a gamble: even the best‑laid plans can be undone by a cloud over Sector 3.
Teams have to be ready to react instantly to changing conditions, and the right call on tyres could be the difference between winning and finishing nowhere…
And with two DRS zones (on the start/finish straight and on the Kemmel Straight), overtaking here is easier than at most tracks BUT only if you’re fast enough to stay close through the middle sector.
So, what’s happening to Spa’s place on the F1 calendar?
If you’ve been following the headlines, you’ve probably seen a lot of speculation about the future of the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa‑Francorchamps. Words like “at risk” and “in doubt” keep popping up. You might even have heard that 2025 could be the last Belgian Grand Prix for a while.
That’s not quite true, but it’s also not completely wrong. Spa isn’t being dropped permanently from the Formula 1 calendar, but its future has definitely changed.
Is the Belgian Grand Prix being dropped?
Not exaaaaactly. Formula 1 and the Belgian Grand Prix organizers have signed a new deal that keeps Spa‑Francorchamps on the F1 calendar through 2031. That’s six more years of the Belgian Grand Prix.
However, Spa will no longer host the race every single year. Starting in 2026, Spa will move to a rotational schedule, meaning it will only appear on the calendar in some years and sit out in others.
Which years will Spa host the Belgian Grand Prix?
Under the current agreement, Spa will host the Belgian Grand Prix in 2026, 2027, 2029 & 2031
It will not host the race in 2028 and 2030
Sooo in the next six seasons, Spa will be on the F1 calendar four times. This rotation allows Spa to remain part of the sport without occupying a full‑time slot every year.
Why is Spa no longer on the F1 calendar every year?
Formula 1 has capped the season at 24 races per year, and those 24 slots are in incredibly high demand.
In recent years, F1 has added big‑money races in places like Miami, Las Vegas, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Other countries, like South Africa, are still waiting for a chance to join the calendar (we can only hope…)
These new venues pay much higher hosting fees than traditional European circuits can afford. Spa, which is privately run and operates on a much smaller budget, simply can’t compete financially with the newer, state‑backed venues.
There are also some practical challenges…
Spa is famous for its history and unique track, but its facilities and infrastructure are older, and traffic for fans can be a nightmare. In the current era of luxury hospitality and global sponsors, F1 expects more from its hosts.
Rather than drop Spa completely, F1 came up with a compromise: let it stay, but rotate it in and out every other year to make room for other venues.
My take on all of this…
If you ask me, Spa should never have been on the chopping block to begin with. There are plenty of tracks you could cut tomorrow and nobody would miss them. But Spa? Spa is the soul of Formula 1.
I understand why the sport needs to grow into new markets. But some places are simply too special to lose.
So watch this year’s Belgian Grand Prix. Watch it knowing that this circuit won’t always be here every season, and savour it, because Spa reminds us what Formula 1 is really about.
This weekend has everything. Upgrades. Rivalries. Weather chaos.
AND the Sprint to light the fuse.
So let’s get EXCITED!!
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