F1 Bahrain Grand Prix 2025 Preview: Upgrades, Strategy & Who to Watch
- Nicole Nolte
- Apr 11
- 21 min read
Formula 1 is back in the desert this weekend for the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix – round four of the season – and we’re far enough in that the early-season jitters have settled, butttttt we’re not deep enough for anyone to be sure of the title 👀
That means EVERY team is showing up to Bahrain with something to prove, and the focus has shifted from “let’s learn what we’ve built” to “okay now we need to fix what’s not working.”
Soooo why is this weekend such a big deal?
It’s a combination of 3 things…
1. An essential point in the development race
THIS is when teams start rolling out their first wave of some preeeeetty major upgrade packages, like redesigned floors, new suspension setups, upgraded wings, and aerodynamic tweaks designed to fix weaknesses that showed up in the opening races.
These are BIG upgrades.
2. Bahrain is (BRUTALLY) honest
The Bahrain Circuit is one of the toughest on the calendar in terms of:
tyre wear
braking zones
heat management
The surface is SUUUPER abrasive, so the tyres degrade quickly (especially the rear tyres, which take an absolute POUNDING in the traction zones)
Combine that with...
looooong straights
tight hairpins
sudden temp drops after sunset
... and you’ve got a track that punishes cars that are hard to drive or unpredictable - even if only a little.
There really is nowhere to hide here… 😅
3. The title fight is still WIDE open
No team has fully asserted dominance on 2025 yet…
That’s why Bahrain matters – it’s a technical circuit that makes setup SUPER important
It’s a tyre killer that punishes poor race management.
AAAAAAND it’s the first time in 2025 where teams are arriving with answers, not just questions.
🤭 So things are about to get SPICYYYY…
Ferrari’s Bahrain Upgrades
Of all the teams arriving in Bahrain, low key none of them are under more pressure than Ferrari rn …
After ending 2024 on a high (relatively) and entering 2025 with possibly the most talked about driver lineup on the grid (Lewis Hamilton alongside Charles Leclerc) expectations were sky-high, to say the least.
Buttttt so far, their season has been underwhelming…
Just three races in, they’ve suffered two disqualifications, inconsistent race pace, and maaaaajor headaches trying to understand their car (and water, lol - iykyk)
So, what’s the issue?
Ferrari’s 2025 challenger (the SF-25) is a car with potential, but its performance window is reeeeeeeally narrow.
That means it only works properly when everything is juuuuust right:
the setup,
the fuel load,
the tyre temperature,
the track surface.
So, if one thing is even a little bit off, the car becomes difficult to handle, especially over long runs with heavy fuel.
Specifically, the rear end of the SF-25 has been unstable and unpredictable.
The drivers have beeeen complaining that the car feels okay in qualifying (when it’s light and fresh), but once race conditions kick in (with full tanks, hotter tyres, changing grip) it becomes twitchy, especially under braking and through high-speed corners.
And in F1, unpredictability is DANGEROUS.
It’s not JUST about having a fast car, it’s about having one that’s fast consistently, lap after lap, stint after stint.
Right now, Ferrari just doesn’t have that.
So what are they doing about it?
They’re not tweaking...
They’re not experimenting...
They’re going ALL IN.
Bahrain will be the debut of Ferrari’s first major upgrade package of 2025, and it’s huuuuuge.
Soooo let’s break it down piece by piece…
#1 Revised Floor and Diffuser
In the ground effect era, the floor is like, THE most important part of the car’s aerodynamics.
It pulls the car toward the ground by generating low pressure underneath (kind of like a lil vacuum effect that creates downforce without adding drag)
Ferrari is debuting a reshaped tunnel floor and a narrower diffuser base, both designed to improve how airflow travels underneath and exits the car.
A better-shaped floor helps the car “stick” to the road more predictably, especially during fast cornering and sudden load changes.
It also gives drivers more confidence on throttle, which is super crucial in Bahrain’s (manyyyy) traction zones.
#2 Rear Suspension Upgrades
Ferrari’s engineers discovered that the rear suspension was too soft under load…
This basically meant that when fuel tanks were full and weight transfer increased (especially under acceleration or braking) the car would squat too much at the rear.
That changed the floor angle, disrupted airflow, and worsened plank wear (the wooden board under the car that scrapes the track and is measured post-race).
To fix this, they’re introducing stiffer rear springs to reduce unwanted movement, allowing the team to run the car lower to the ground without risking bottoming out.
Why does that matter?
Because lower ride height = more downforce = more grip… BUT only if the car stays stable.
#3 Brake Duct & Beam Wing Changes
Brake ducts might seem like simple cooling devices, but in modern F1, they’re actually aerodynamic tools too.
Airflow around the rear wheels is pretty chaotic, and controlling that flow can improve stability, tyre wear, and overall drag.
Ferrari is rolling out a new rear brake duct assembly and possibly revising the beam wing (the small wing under the main rear wing) to clean up the airflow behind the car.
This helps reduce rear-end snap and improves the consistency of downforce generation, especially during changes in speed and direction.
#4 Potential New Front Wing and Sidepods
To make the new floor and rear changes work optimally, Ferrari miiiight also test a new front wing spec in Bahrain.
The front wing sets up the air that flows to the rest of the car, so if it’s not working in harmony with the floor, everything downstream gets messy. And things get ugly FAST.
A new wing would help “re-balance” the aero package, improving front-end grip and overall stability.
They’re also rumored to be modifying the sidepod undercut, which is the sculpted area beneath the sidepod that channels airflow to the floor.
More efficient airflow here means the underfloor gets better quality air, and that boosts downforce, especially at high speed.
Why all of this matters
This upgrade isn’t just about a tenth or two of lap time, it’s about widening the car’s usable window, making it easier for the team to find a working setup, and giving the drivers a car that behaves the same on lap 5 as it does on lap 25.
Up until now, Ferrari’s car has forced engineers into uncomfortable compromises…
To protect the plank or manage tyre wear, they’ve had to raise the car or change the balance, which means sacrificing performance.
This new package is designed to remove those compromises.
And Bahrain is the BEST place to test it.
Why Bahrain?
Ferrari has preseason testing data from Bahrain to compare with, sooo they can directly see whether the upgrades are working by looking at GPS traces, tyre degradation curves, and driver feedback in the same corners.
Which is pretty exciting tbh.
The track layout is also ideal for exposing weaknesses…
it has long straights (good for drag testing),
big braking zones (good for suspension testing),
and lots of slow- to medium-speed corners where balance and traction matter most.
If the SF-25 is better here, it’s a strong sign that the upgrades are doing their job.
So, what’s at stake here?
This weekend is kiiiiiiind of a make-or-break moment for Ferrari’s 2025 campaign.
If this package delivers, they could go from (roughly) 4th-fastest to genuine contenders, with more upgrades planned for later races.
… But if it doesn’t work?
They miiiiight have to start thinking about shifting resources to 2026 when F1 undergoes major regulation changes.
There’s also the Hamilton vs. Leclerc dynamic to watch.
With both drivers adapting to the car in different ways, the one who gets more comfortable post-upgrade could become the team’s clear lead, at least in the short term.
Mercedes Bahrain Upgrades
After two challenging seasons in the new ground effect era, Mercedes finally looks like it’s found solid ground again.
The W16 (their 2025 car) is by no means the fastest on the grid, but it’s something arguably just as important at this stage: consistent.
That might not sound sexy…
But in Formula 1, especially in this current era of incredibly complex aerodynamics and razor-thin margins, having a car that’s predictable lap after lap is a huge asset.
So far this season, Mercedes has been quietly putting together solid results.
They’re second in the Constructors’ standings and both drivers (George Russell and Kimi Antonelli) have looked a lot more comfortable behind the wheel than in previous years.
Buttttt while the W16 has eliminated some of the wild inconsistencies that plagued the W14 and W15, it still isn’t fast enough to fight for wins.
It’s generally 3-4 tenths per lap off the front, and in F1 terms, that’s HUGE.
So what are they doing about it?
Mercedes is bringing their first major upgrade package of the season to Bahrain, and it might seem subtle at first glance, but it’s a pretty big deal behind the scenes.
This package is alllllllll about unlocking more aerodynamic performance without upsetting the car’s newfound balance.
Here’s what they’re changing and why it matters:
#1 Floor Edge Modifications
Again, the floor is one of the most important parts of any F1 car, especially in this ground effect era.
The W16 already has a relatively stable aero platform, but Mercedes believes they’re still leaving performance on the table by not running the car as low to the ground as they’d like.
The upgrade involves changes to the floor edges, which help control how air moves along the car’s sides and feeds into the tunnels underneath.
These tunnels are where the magic happens, and they’re sculpted to create low pressure and pull the car downward, generating downforce without needing bulky wings.
But here’s the catch: if air spills over the edge of the floor (known as flow separation) it disrupts the suction effect and destabilizes the car.
By revising the floor edge geometry, Mercedes is hoping to improve flow consistency along the entire underbody, which should allow them to:
Run the car lower (more ground effect = more downforce)
Increase cornering speed
Keep the rear end more planted under braking and acceleration
It’s a precision move, and small changes in the floor can create big gains … or completely throw the car off.
That’s why they’ve waited until now to introduce it, after confirming baseline behavior across three race weekends.
#2 New Front Wing (Third Spec)
Mercedes is also introducing a third specification front wing, which features revised upper flaps and reshaped endplates.
The front wing is the very first part of the car that interacts with oncoming airflow. It sets the tone for everything that happens downstream…
– from how the airflow hugs the bodywork, to how the underfloor is energized, to how the diffuser at the rear does its job –
The goals of the new wing are to...
Improve airflow around the front tyres, which are a major source of turbulence
Better manage how air is sent into the floor tunnels and under the chassis
Increase front-end grip, especially in low-speed corners like those found in Sakhir
Understandably, Mercedes doesn’t want to just bolt on a front wing that adds grip.
They want it to match the behavior of the rear so the car feels balanced and responsive, not twitchy or “on edge.” The new wing will also work in tandem with the floor changes to boost downforce while keeping drag levels manageable.
#3 Reusing Suzuka Medium-Downforce Wings
Bahrain is a bit of an aero compromise.
The long straights demand decent top speed (which means you want to reduce drag), but the heavy braking zones and long corners also demand downforce and stability.
That’s why Mercedes is expected to reuse their medium-downforce wing configuration from Suzuka — which proved to be one of the best-balanced setups they’ve run so far this season.
It gave them enough straight-line performance to stay in the mix, while also helping the rear stick through long-radius turns.
It’s not about reinventing the car for each track, it’s about making the most of what already works while layering improvements on top.
Why it matters
Mercedes’ approach this season has been cautious but methodical.
They didn’t try to revolutionize their car again. Instead, they focused on getting the basics right:
good balance
better tyre management
a platform that drivers can trust in all conditions
Butttt now, with McLaren and Ferrari throwing big upgrades into the mix (and Red Bull still very much in the game) Mercedes can’t rely on consistency alone.
They need to find lap time, and they need to do it without disrupting what’s finally working.
This Bahrain upgrade package is their first real push toward performance.
If it delivers, they’ll close the gap to the leaders.
If it doesn’t, they could start slipping behind as others surge forward.
Why Bahrain is the ULTIMATE test
Mercedes knows that rear-limited circuits like Bahrain have traditionally exposed their biggest weaknesses, like tyre overheating, rear-end instability, and a lack of traction off slow corners.
In 2023 and 2024, these issues were CRAZY.
But the W16 is a different animal.
Bahrain will tell us if those demons have truly been exorcised.
Can they manage tyre wear over a full stint?
Will the upgrades give them more edge in qualifying?
Can they hold their own in a strategy-heavy race?
Team boss Toto Wolff summed it up perfectly ahead of the weekend:
"Bahrain will be another test of the progress we've made with this year’s car. It’s a track that’s traditionally been tough for us. We’ll see whether the steps forward we’ve made are enough.”
McLaren's Upgrades
Right now, McLaren might just have the fastest car in Formula 1.
The MCL39 has taken the paddock by storm in early 2025, showing incredible speed in both qualifying and race conditions…
They’ve scored poles. They’ve won races. And their biggest rival (Red Bull) is watching closely.
Buttttt being the fastest doesn’t always mean being the most complete.
And that’s where Bahrain presents a very real challenge for the papaya squad.
First, let’s talk about what’s working
The MCL39’s high-speed performance is exceptional.
In tracks like Suzuka, where flowing corners dominate the lap and aerodynamic balance is king, McLaren has looked nearly unbeatable.
Their car is incredibly well-sorted through the fast stuff, with strong cornering speeds, good ride stability over kerbs, and minimal drag on the straights.
In many ways, they’ve built the kind of car that Red Bull used to dominate with; one that just works, corner after corner, without needing to be babied.
But here’s the problem: Bahrain is not Suzuka
Sakhir is a very different beast.
It’s a rear-limited circuit, meaning most of the tyre wear and traction stress happens at the back of the car.
That’s because the layout features things like...
Long straights followed by heavy braking zones
Multiple low-speed corners that demand strong traction on corner exit
Harsh acceleration zones that punish any instability in the rear
And this is where McLaren has a known weakness.
The MCL39’s Achilles heel
Throughout the season so far, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have both mentioned that the car feels “peaky” and unpredictable under braking in tight corners.
The biggest issue? Slow-speed stability and rear-end grip.
In corners like Turn 10 at Bahrain (a long, downhill left-hander that combines braking and turning) the MCL39 can get nervous.
The rear steps out.
The car feels unsettled.
And that costs time, not just in lap time, but in tyre life too.
NOT cute.
Norris mentioned after Japan:
“Our weakness was the slow speed compared to Red Bull... Bahrain’s layout will expose that, for sure.”
So what’s McLaren doing about it?
They’re not sitting still. The team is bringing a targeted upgrade package to Bahrain designed to address these exact issues:
#1 Floor Revisions
McLaren is introducing an updated floor with revised tunnel geometry, aimed at reducing the “peaky” nature of the car.
Basically... the underfloor of the car creates the majority of its downforce. BUT if airflow under the car is too sensitive to small changes (pitch, ride height, or steering input) the car can suddenly lose grip.
That’s what drivers mean when they say a car is “on edge.”
By reshaping the tunnels and floor strakes, McLaren is trying to:
Stabilize airflow under braking and corner entry
Maintain downforce through low-speed transitions
Make the car more forgiving over long stints
This can help in Bahrain’s slow corners, where the car needs to behave consistently while transferring load from front to rear.
#2 New Beam Wing
The team is also testing a third-spec beam wing (that’s the smaller secondary rear wing element below the main one)
The beam wing helps fine-tune how the diffuser expels air from under the car.
What’s special about this version is that it’s likely track-specific, designed to help McLaren reduce drag on the straights without giving up rear downforce. They're finding that balance.
This is key at Bahrain, where teams must try to get an equal mix of top-end speed for overtaking and rear-end grip for tyre preservation.
By adjusting the angle and shape of the beam wing, McLaren hopes to improve:
Rear stability through the traction zones
Efficiency at high speeds
Overall balance when braking deep into tight corners
McLaren’s real challenge isn’t speed, it’s execution
Even when they have the fastest car, McLaren hasn’t always made the right calls.
In Japan, for example, poor strategy decisions arguably cost them the win. They’ve had issues with tyre timing, pit stop decisions, and not always reacting well to changing race conditions.
This is what team principal Andrea Stella has been pushing hard to fix — turning McLaren from a team with raw pace into a team that can execute under pressure, week in and week out.
He said after Japan:
“You need more than just speed to win a championship. You need to be perfect on the pit wall, perfect in the garage, and brave in the big moments.”
Bahrain is EXACTLY the kind of race where bold strategy (like undercutting, double stacking, reading tyre degradation in real-time) can make or break a result.
Why Bahrain Will Push Them
This circuit is especially punishing on tyres, especially the rear ones.
The surface is abrasive.
The layout demands traction.
And the high temperatures (even at night) make thermal degradation a real issue for the tyres.
Cars with narrow setup windows or tricky rear ends (like the MCL39) will have a harder time keeping tyre temps in check.
Plus, the temperature drop between practice and race conditions can confuse teams. FP1 and FP3 happen in daylight, where the tarmac is hotter.
But FP2, qualifying, and the race are all held after sunset.
That means grip levels, tyre wear, and even balance can feel completely different from one session to the next.
If McLaren can adapt to all of that (and if their upgrades settle the rear end) they’ll be in contention for the win.
So what’s at stake for McLaren?
If they win Bahrain, they become clear title favorites.
It would show that they can win at a high-deg, low-speed circuit and not just fast, flowing tracks.
It would prove that their car is not only fast but adaptable.
And it would send a clear message to Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes that they’ve got both the hardware and the execution to go all the way.
But if they fumble (either from strategy misfires or rear-end issues) it could open the door for others to close the gap.
Red Bull
Red Bull’s dominance in 2023 and 2024 created an expectation: when they show up, they win.
But 2025? It’s already proving to be a very different kind of year…
**cries in RB fan **
Yes, Max Verstappen won in Japan. Yes, he still looks like the most complete driver on the grid.
Butttttt for the first time in a long time, Red Bull is not the clearly dominant car...
In fact, on raw pace alone, the RB21 has arguably been the third-fastest car at a couple of rounds — and that’s a BIG shift in the F1 power balance.
The car is still fast, but hard to handle
So what’s going on?
The RB21 is fast, no doubt.
But it’s not easy.
Not at ALL.
The biggest issue Red Bull faces right now is cornering balance — specifically how the car behaves between the moment you turn into a corner and when you power out.
Let’s break this down:
On corner entry, the car feels very sharp, sometimes even too sharp. This is called oversteer (where the rear end feels light and wants to swing around)
Mid-corner and exit, it transitions into understeer (where the front no longer bites properly, and the car pushes wide)
This kind of inconsistent balance makes the car pretty hard to predict tbh...
Verstappen has mentioned it multiple times in post-session interviews.
And while he’s good enough to drive around the problem, it makes it harder to extract consistent lap time (especially for a full race stint)
The Root of the Problem
Red Bull’s technical team has admitted that they tried to widen the RB21’s operating window compared to last year.
In 2024, the RB20 was insanely fast, but only when everything was perfect. If track temps changed or a session got disrupted, it was hard to adapt.
The RB21 was supposed to fix that. And it has… a bit.
According to the team’s own estimates, they’ve fixed about 25% of the issue.
But the car is still very setup-sensitive. If the floor isn’t working just right, or the front wing balance isn’t dialed in, the car’s performance drops sharply.
THAT'S why the car looked off the pace on Friday in Japan (until they made huge overnight setup changes), and then suddenly Verstappen was on pole and took the win.
This fragility makes weekends like Bahrain especially tricky.
The track evolves A LOT from day to night, and if Red Bull can’t adapt quickly, they risk starting behind the curve, which is not something they can afford in this fight.
No Big Upgrades
Unlike Ferrari, Mercedes, or McLaren, who are all bringing fairly significant upgrades to Bahrain — Red Bull is not debuting any major new parts this weekend.
Instead, they’re focused on refining what they already have.
That might seem risky, but there’s logic behind it.
Red Bull believes the RB21 has the core performance (they just haven’t consistently accessed it yet)
Their goal in Bahrain is to fine-tune the setup, especially for the rear-end behavior and tyre wear over long runs.
They’re bringing back the Japan setup direction and hoping that, with better data and fewer surprises, they can be in the fight from Friday.
Strengths That Still Matter
The RB21 has a few standout qualities that still give it an edge in key areas:
Braking Stability
The car is incredibly stable under hard braking ,which is a HUGE asset at Bahrain, which has some of the biggest braking zones on the calendar (Turn 1, Turn 4, and Turn 10 especially)
Kerb Handling
Verstappen mentioned that, unlike the RB20, the new car can now attack kerbs aggressively, which is super crucial for places like Turn 7 and Turn 11, where riding the kerb can gain time.
Traction in Low Speed
Despite the balance issues, the RB21 still live laugh loves in tight, technical sections where traction out of corners is key. That’s a big reason they’re still dangerous at tracks like Bahrain, even without a major upgrade.
The Bigger Play: Waiting for Spain
Here’s where things get really interesting.
Red Bull is looking at Bahrain (and the next couple of races) as damage limitation.
Why?
Because they believe a technical regulation change coming at the Spanish Grand Prix could shake up the pecking order — and work in their favor.
The FIA is set to crack down on flexible front wings, which many believe are helping McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes generate clever aero advantages.
These wings flex at high speed to reduce drag, then return to their normal shape at lower speeds to provide downforce, giving teams the best of both worlds.
Red Bull has been more conservative in this area, using less aggressive flex. If the clampdown removes some of their rivals’ current strengths, it could bring everyone back toward Red Bull — without them needing to do anything.
Christian Horner even hinted at this:
“There’s an unknown as to how it will affect the different cars... but we know what areas we need to improve. And we’re focused on that.”
So for now, Red Bull is playing the long game.
They’ll extract what they can from the current car, lean on Verstappen’s brilliance, and wait for the field to potentially come back to them post-Spain.
What to Watch in Bahrain
Setup evolution between FP1 and FP2 will be very important. If Red Bull starts strong in FP2 (run in similar conditions to the race), they’ll be in the fight.
Verstappen’s tyre management is always top-tier — if he can stay within striking distance in the first stint, he’ll likely mount a serious challenge.
Yuki's performance could be a weak point while he's still adjusting to the car. The car’s tricky balance makes it harder for other drivers to match Max, especially over one lap. That hurts in qualifying-heavy tracks like Bahrain.
Strategy & Tyres
If there’s one word that defines the Bahrain International Circuit when it comes to tyres, it’s brutal.
This track isn’t just tough on drivers — it’s one of the most punishing circuits on tyres in the entire F1 calendar.
And that’s by design.
Long straights into heavy braking zones, big traction demands, and searing heat from both the tarmac and the ambient air combine to create the ultimate test of tyre degradation.
Let’s unpack why tyres matter SOOOO MUCH in Bahrain (and what kind of strategy we’re likely to see play out)
Tyre Compounds
For Bahrain, Pirelli has selected the C1, C2, and C3 compounds (the hardest tyres in their range)
These are designed specifically to survive high-degradation tracks like this.
Here’s a quick breakdown of what each compound does:
C1 (Hard): Most durable. Slower in lap time, but holds up better under heat and pressure. Used for long stints and often chosen by teams trying to stretch strategy.
C2 (Medium): The Goldilocks option — good balance between pace and longevity. Likely the default race tyre.
C3 (Soft): Fastest, but tends to overheat quickly in Bahrain. Usually used in qualifying and possibly very short stints or late-race sprints.
In practice and qualifying, teams will get a feel for how quickly each tyre degrades under both low fuel (quali sim) and high fuel (race sim).
BUT it’s in the race itself where the real tyre management challenge begins.
Why Bahrain Eats Tyres for Breakfast
There are a few key factors that combine to make Bahrain a rear-limited, high-deg circuit:
1. Heavy Braking Zones
Bahrain has some of the heaviest braking zones on the calendar (Turn 1, Turn 4, and Turn 10)
These are corners where drivers go from over 300km/h to under 100km/h in just a couple of seconds.
When that happens, it puts a huge vertical load into the tyres, especially the front ones.
So what even IS vertical load?
When a car slams on the brakes, the whole weight of the car shifts forward.
That weight pushes down onto the front tyres (like pressing hard on a sponge)
The tyres squish, heat up, and get physically worn down from the extra pressure.
That pressure pushing downward is called vertical load.
It’s different from lateral load, which happens when a car turns and the forces go sideways through the tyres (we covered that in the Suzuka blog).
In Bahrain, the issue isn’t side-to-side stress, instead it’s how much the tyres get squashed from the top down during braking.
This matters because the harder the tyres are loaded, the more heat they generate.
And in Bahrain’s heat, that’s a problem — too much vertical load + high temps = rapid tyre degradation.
2. Traction Zones
Corners like Turn 2, Turn 10, and Turn 13 demand aggressive throttle application while the car is still slightly rotated.
This causes wheelspin and loads up the rear tyres, wearing them out unevenly.
Rear tyre degradation is a known weakness for cars with unstable or oversteery balance — like McLaren and sometimes Red Bull this year.
3. High Track Temperatures
Even though the race is held at night, the asphalt retains heat from the day.
Combined with hot ambient air and relatively low humidity, this means tyres struggle to stay in the ideal temperature window.
Once they overheat, they start to slide, which leads to more wear — and the cycle gets worse.
4. Abrasive Tarmac
Bahrain’s surface hasn’t been resurfaced in yearssss, so the asphalt is rough and gritty, like sandpaper compared to somewhere like Silverstone.
This physically wears away at the tyres with every lap, meaning even the hardest compound can’t last forever.
Strategy Options: One-Stop or Two-Stop?
Over the years, Bahrain has typically been a two-stop race — not because the rules demand it, but because the tyre degradation is simply too high to run a single-stop effectively.
Here’s what we might see:
Two-Stop Strategy (I think this is the most likely)
Medium–Hard–Medium or Medium–Medium–Hard
This gives teams flexibility to react to Safety Cars, undercut opportunities, and changing temperatures
It also helps keep tyre performance consistent across each stint
I think we can expect teams like McLaren and Mercedes (who are trying to avoid late-race tyre drop-off) to go this route
One-Stop (High Risk, High Reward)
Usually Medium–Hard
Only viable if there’s a long Safety Car, or if a team has a car that’s especially gentle on its tyres (like Haas, potentially)
Also an option for drivers starting out of position and hoping to gain track position by avoiding a second stop
Undercuts vs Overcuts: What Works at Bahrain?
Bahrain is one of those tracks where the undercut is incredibly powerful — especially in the middle of a stint.
Why?
Fresh tyres immediately give better traction out of slow corners
The tyre degradation curve here is steep — so an older tyre drops off in pace quickly
If a driver pits even one lap earlier, they can gain 1.5 to 2.5 seconds on their rival, depending on the compound delta
This means teams must be sharp af on strategy.
A late call, or hesitation, can cost track position — especially in the midfield, where margins are tight. That’s why pit wall execution is absolutely vital at Bahrain.
Soooo expect to hear a lot of “box box” radio calls coming earlier than expected.
The Wildcards: Safety Cars, Wind, and Sand
No Bahrain race is complete without a few curveballs...
Safety Cars are relatively common here, especially in the opening laps or mid-race scraps into Turn 1 and Turn 4. These can flip strategy on its head.
Wind direction changes frequently in the desert — especially between FP1 and FP2. Tailwinds into braking zones increase the chance of lockups, while headwinds can improve corner entry stability. Teams will be watching weather data closely.
Sand blown onto the track can drastically reduce grip — especially offline. Drivers will need to keep it clean in wheel-to-wheel moments, or risk sliding into trouble.
Strategy Will Shape the Race
Bahrain isn’t ONLY about outright speed.
It’s about tyre life, timing, and track position.
That’s why even the fastest car on Saturday might not win on Sunday. Which makes it all the more exciting!
Keep an eye on...
Who protects their tyres best in the opening stint
Who caves first in the pit window
Whether a surprise one-stopper opens up for someone in clean air
Smart strategy (and good tyre calls) could decide this race just as much as car upgrades or qualifying position.
Bahrain could be a Tipping Point
Every F1 season has a moment where the story starts to shift — when trends become truths, when hype either materializes or collapses. And for 2025, that moment might be Bahrain.
This is no ordinary round.
After three races in unpredictable conditions — including a rain-hit Australia, the technical nightmare of China’s sprint weekend, and the high-downforce sitch of Suzuka — Bahrain is our first “pure test” of car performance, driver adaptability, and team execution under traditional race pressures.
Here’s why Bahrain matters more than just another set of points on the table…
The First Real Upgrade War
This is the first weekend of the season where nearly every major team is bringing something new to the table
This means Bahrain isn’t JUST a race, it’s also a testing ground for which car concept works, which upgrades translate from the simulator to the real world, and which team can pivot the fastest.
If Ferrari suddenly jumps McLaren, the narrative changes.
If Red Bull falls back further, the pressure builds.
If Mercedes or Racing Bulls find big gains, the whole midfield reshuffles.
Bahrain is the track where potential becomes performance (or doesn’t)
Intra-Team Battles Heating Up
This is also a weekend where driver dynamics inside each team could shift dramatically.
These aren’t just personality clashes. They affect car development priorities, political power within the team, and even future contract decisions. A strong result in Bahrain can tilt that balance.
The Bigger Picture
This weekend is about more than tyres and lap times. It’s about...
Who gets their upgrades right
Who adapts fastest to setup changes
Who manages tyre wear without sacrificing pace
Who builds momentum heading into the heart of the season
In a season already full of surprises, Bahrain has all the ingredients to either cement the new order or flip it on its head.
So keep your eyes on the long runs in FP2, watch for who’s smiling after qualifying, and pay close attention to the undercut window on Sunday.
This race could define who we’re still talking about in November, and who’s already looking toward 2026...
Comments